"Take Ukraine. Biden has been careful to limit his support (which I still do not agree with, by the way) to actions that are unlikely to lead to a direct conflict with Russia (though that still doesn't rule out accidental or unintended escalation, which is one of the reasons I'm against it)."
Wrong there, my friend. Biden has been going out of his way to antagonize Russia and China in an increasingly escalating manner. His family fortune is entirely tied into the military industrial complex (MIC) and petroleum, and that influences almost all of his foreign policy decisions. As Eeyore noted, Trump was the only president in recent history not to start more wars. The Obama administration, on the other hand, escalated the wars the Bush/Cheney administration started from three to seven! Trump only started bombing Syria and whacking an Iranian official due to all the typical pressure from the government, and guess what? That was the *only* time that liberal media outlets like MSNBC (all shills for the Democrats) actually *praised* Trump!
Understand that Trump's personal fortune is in real estate and the entertainment industry, not the MIC or oil. He has no personal motivation to go along with all of that. Trump may be unpredictable in certain ways, but he would not be quick to start or escalate wars. Biden, on the other hand, is predictably dangerous as a guaranteed war-monger!
"On the other hand, current indications seem to be that Trump won't get the nomination for 2024, or, if he does, he will lose."
You may be wrong there, my friend. For one thing, you can thank the Biden administration, much like the Obama administration before it, for setting the conditions that allow a potential Trump administration, or one by some other Republican nutjob like DeSantis.
Secondly, since the Democrats *never* learn, and only allow corporate, pro-war establishment politicians to win the primaries, they are lining up *very* unpopular pundits for the primaries if Biden can't run again, including Hilary Clinton, the worst choice imaginable and who was defeated by Trump in 2016. Biden just *barely* defeated Trump in 2020, and American citizens are *very pissed* at him for breaking every single campaign promise he made (as usual) and for allowing Roe vs. Wade to get overthrown *under his watch* with him and Kamala Harris then getting angry when voters asked them what the Dems were going to do about it. Btw, they said there was nothing they could do (translation: nothing they *would* do) except "hold their positions" (because they don't care, as that law doesn't affect the wealthy and they need it as an issue to run on). Kamala Harris will also be up as a potential candidate, along with Pete Buttegeig, both of which are tremendously unpopular and awful choices.
The Democrats have nothing but more of the same to offer the American people, and those desperate for "change" are told they have no choice but to look to the other party of Wall Street shills. Until they realize that the only choice is to take matters into their own hands and start a third party under control of the labor class, this situation of only having an "evil" to choose from is going to continue. This is what the Trump Derangement Syndrome brings us--more of the same over and over again.