Have you ever been in a political campaign war room?

No?

Well.

In a political campaign war room, you do not assume what other people believe. You have the polls to back that up. You have the feedback noted down from oral and written questions you receive at campaign events. You have what your field activists tell you about what the ground is like. And again, you have polls with you.

You don't go saying "women aren't voting for us because that beard looks intimidating" or "the middle class are uneasy about our tax reform plan" or "our vote on gay marriage is coming back to bite us" unless and until there is data telling you that.

So, show us the polls.