Interesting article about birth control, populatio

A long and interesting article for reading during the long quiet GC-night. (A bit off topic, though.)

(See link for graphs, pictures and many interesting links.)

FEWER CHILDREN: In rich countries prosperity made each woman get relatively few children. Now the developing world follow - and birth rates are falling in many of the largest countries in the world.

[Picture]
These children in the picture come from Manila in the Philippines.

In this century. Disaster alarm canceled.

Flatten: Females give birth to fewer children, even in the poor parts of the world. Around 2050 the UN estimates that world population growth levels off, and immediately after this, the population stabilze. Source: UN / John Bongaarts, "Human population growth and the demographic transition"

Rapid urbanization: Half of us now live in cities, and the proportion will increase to 70 percent of world population in 2050, UN estimates.

DECREASE IN INDONESIA: Indonesia with its 240 million inhabitants is one of the countries where birth rates have declined markedly. Now the figure is 2.3.

[Picture]
Dancing children are Betawi dance for President Barack Obama who was on a visit in December last year. Photo: Beawiharta / Reuters / Scanpix

IT still needs emphasis: Research Fellow in Statistics, Helge Brunborg, believes there is still cause for concern for some of the countries south of Sahara. There are few signs of decline in fertility rate and population growth is still very large. Photo: Cornelius Poppe / SCANPIX

Doom: Thomas Robert Malthus published in 1798, the highly influential book, Principles of Population in which he says claims that the population will inevitably increase, without being able to increase food production accordingly.

population demographics magazine
The last 40 years is the world's population doubled. While we were about 2.5 billion people on Earth in 1950, we are now passed 6.8 billion. And the number continues to rise.

But there is increasing nearly as fast as before, shows the forecasts.

Most experiences suggest that birth rates go down when the living conditions of the population goes up, and the birthrate has long sharply reduced in most rich countries. Now follow the developing world after.

In a number of large developing countries have fertility rates, ie the number of children it is estimated each woman will have during the course of a life, has been reduced dramatically.

In Bangladesh, the figure is reduced from 6 to 3 between 1980 and 2000. UN estimate for the period 2005-2010 is down in 2.4. In Iran, the reduction is even greater. From 1984 to 2006 it fell from 7 to 1.9. For developing countries collectively fall from 6 in 1950 to 3 in 2000.

The UN estimates that world population will be around 9 billion in 2050. (They operate with a low estimate of 8 billion, the highest at 10.5 billion). At some point after 2050, it will probably stabilize and the growth in world population to stop.

INCREASE OF WEALTH alone can not explain this decrease. A number of developing countries with the fall in birth rates are still poor. According to the Economist magazine can the one-child rule China introduced in the 70s alone have reduced the world population of 300-400 million. Women's educational level also seems to be very important. Iran is a good example. In 1976 to only 10 percent of women in rural areas to read and write. Now is the proportion of 91 percent, and women have good educational opportunities as men.

The coming year may decline in fertility rates have a very positive economic effect for developing countries. There are relatively few children and affordable to give them an education and healthcare. Because of the relatively short life expectancy, there are few older, while there is a very large group of employable people who can contribute to the economy, including women who are largely able to work when they do not get as many children.

Households with fewer children to support, have greater funds available which can be invested, writes Economist.

The financial crisis also has not affected many of the world's developing countries as hard as feared. It looked disastrous at the beginning of 2008, but large countries such as China, India and Indonesia have avoided recession and is experiencing only a slightly slower growth than before the crisis set in..

Brazil and several of the major Asian economies experienced that the economy was in recession, but is now back at previous levels.

There are four demographic "Megatrends" that will change the world, says political science professor Jack A. Goldstone in the first edition of the journal Foreign Affairs. (Login required to read the essay, but there is a little strange for full-text version here.)

"The new population bomb" is the title of his essay, which plays the classic "The population bomb," a controversial book written in 1968 by Paul R. Ehrlich. In Ehrlich's book from -68 he warns against the hundreds of millions will die of hunger in 70 - and 80-century because of the tremendous population increase and the world's inability to produce ever more food.

Ehrich was essentially wrong in his assumptions. The green revolution has led to far more efficient food production, and most have agreed, with certain exceptions, that there is no problem to produce enough food globally, but our ability to distribute the food so everyone can have sufficient.

And while growth in world population in the 2000s soon stabilizes, the world economy is likely to increase by 2 to 3 per cent a year. The growth in world income will thus be much greater than population growth (unless we are experiencing an ecological disaster, or do not come out of the financial crisis), estimate Goldstone optimistic. International security will the next few years does not depend on how many people we are, but of how the world's population is complex and where and how we live, "he said.

MEGATREND #1 is the world's rich countries receive a smaller share of world population, and lose power in relation to developing countries is growing significantly - this is where population growth until 2050 will come. The relative demographic weight of West's population will be reduced by 25 percent, according to Goldstone.

Another very significant trend is the aging populations in the West. Population composition will increase the need for immigration, restrict economic growth, increasing demand for health services and greatly weaken the military capacity.

Third, the amount of population growth in the world come in poor Muslim countries that already have very young populations, according to Goldstone. Some of these countries have undemocratic, repressive regimes and poor educational and employment opportunities for its young people, with the security challenges that entails.

The Fourth Megatrend can be summarized in the following milestone: Half the world's population lives in cities, and the proportion will increase to 70 percent in 2050, according to UN estimates. In 1950, only 30 percent lived in cities.

Since it is poor countries that have the greatest population increase and fastest urbanization, there is a danger of destabilization in one million cities with large slum areas, inadequate infrastructure, poor health services and a lack of police and security apparatus, said Goldstone. Rebellion, need, violence and vigilante may spread.

- An increasing number of urban poor countries may experience dickenian poverty and anarcistic violence, he writes.

HE DISCUSSES THE BIG cohorts in the Muslim world in particular, and believes it is crucial to improve relations between the West and Muslim countries in the future.

West, along with rapidly growing economies such as China, India, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia join forces to help the poorest countries in the world to prevent conflict, violence and acute distress. International trade should increase, and a NATO based on aging populations should be considered to include Morocco and Brazil, rather than Albania, "he said.

Goldstone denies that the Muslim minorities in Western Europe, which now account for between 3 and 10 percent, will exceed 20 percent in 2050. But he believes the EU should incorporate Turkey in the union to show that Europeans and Muslims can live together, and because Turkey would be a valuable addition to the European workforce.

Western countries should, in addition to permit immigration, work to increase their birth rates - in many countries they are now far below the level to maintain their own population.

RESEARCH and demographics expert Helge Brunborg in SSB confirms the main demographic trends Goldstone outlines, and emphasizes the striking decline in fertility rates globally. But still requires substantial efforts to ensure a stable and sustainable population development in the world, he says:

- In 1994 there was a large international population conference in Cairo. After that population policy was revised. Mon laid less emphasis on family planning, and more on the education of women and reproductive health. But in a way they have thrown the baby out with the bath water. The proportion of women using contraception increases far less than what is necessary, "said Brunborg.

International surveys show that contraception, for example to African women are far less accessible than the women themselves say that they need, and that many pregnancies are unwanted.

Brunborg explains that part of the reason for the lack of support for family planning is that HIV and AIDS epidemic has required significant resources, but also that former U.S. President George W. Bush withdrew a large portion of aid to family planning and called for sexual abstinence instead, a very unrealistic way to limit the birth rate on.

- Education is hugely important, it affects both fertility rates, infant mortality and health in general. But one may wonder if the trend is fast enough, says Brunborg.

SSB researchers asking themselves about Gold Stones concern about developments in Muslim countries is too large:

- Maybe he puts some emphasis on Muslim countries. In Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia and Pakistan are the significant decline in fertility rates. In my opinion, however, there is cause for concern for some of the countries south of Sahara. There are few signs of decline in rate of fertility and the population growth is very large. There are many countries in Africa with huge poverty problems, such as Uganda, where fertility is very high. 6.4 UN estimates for the period 2005-2010. There is hardly any decline, "said Brunborg.

He agrees with Goldstone in that it is very unlikely with a greater proportion of Muslims in Western Europe over 20 percent at most.

-There must be a very high immigration and a substantial degree of conversion to if it will be more than this, "Brunborg.

In 1798 came the British priest and scientist Thomas Robert Malthus with the first edition of the book Principles of Population which was to have enormous significance. In the book he argues that the population will inevitably increase, without being able to increase food production accordingly. This will lead to famine, disease and mass death. "Malthusianism" has since become a separate concept, and both Ehrlich Population Bomb and the book Limits to Growth from 1972 have continued Malthus' demographic pessimism of our time.

The latest global demographic analyzes gives good hope that the great disaster will not come.

There are environmental activists who express some of the same concern for over-consumption and overpopulation still, but also commentators as editor Brendan O'Neill in spiked magazine that mean tens of billions of people can possibly live on earth:

- What really lies behind malthusianism is this: not scientific discoveries about the overcrowding, but the feeling of it. The idealogy´s own twisted idea that there simply are too many 'people, people, people', especially over there in the hot and dusty third world. Anyone who thinks humans are a good thing and not a scourge, who believe we can find solutions to our problems if we will, should reject population control argument and believe in full reproductive freedom for all.